<![CDATA[Watching a Little Too Closely: Intraday]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/s/intradayhttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QfPx!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4b0cb8e5-fbe1-4f67-ac89-85189831f75e_1990x1990.jpegWatching a Little Too Closely: Intradayhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/s/intradaySubstackMon, 13 Apr 2026 04:29:07 GMT<![CDATA[Post-Close — 10 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/post-close-10-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/post-close-10-aprilFri, 10 Apr 2026 23:43:34 GMTWe’re looking at a market that is desperately trying to look past the conflict

  • QQQ is technically "overbought" on the shorter timeframes

  • If the Islamabad talks don't produce a concrete win for energy security (specifically the Strait), ~$614 will likely be the top for the month

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]]><![CDATA[Mid-Day — 10 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/mid-day-10-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/mid-day-10-aprilFri, 10 Apr 2026 17:19:23 GMT

CPI did exactly what it tends to do

  1. No clean breakout

  2. No full rejection

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]]><![CDATA[Pre-Market — 10 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/pre-market-10-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/pre-market-10-aprilFri, 10 Apr 2026 10:46:24 GMTThis morning’s CPI print serves as a catalyst for either a breakout or a mean-reversion move

  • QQQ recently dipped below the $605 psychological level before a sharp reversal

  • This “bear trap” cleared out sell-side liquidity, suggesting institutional accumulation before the CPI move

  • SPY has made a marginally higher high ($680+), but the RSI & MACD are printing lower highs

  • This non-confirmation suggests large players are offloading into the strength of the move

  • While the price is “printing” higher, volume-at-price is narrowing

  • This “thin air” indicates that if CPI misses expectations, price could fall rapidly through these low-volume areas

The market is paying a ~5% IV premium for downside protection on SPY & QQQ

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]]><![CDATA[Post-Close — 9 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/post-close-9-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/post-close-9-aprilFri, 10 Apr 2026 00:18:18 GMTQQQ made a clean reclaim of $605 & pushed into $610 supply to close near the highs of the day, which is acceptance, but volume isn’t exceeding sell-off peak

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]]><![CDATA[Mid-Day — 9 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/mid-day-9-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/mid-day-9-aprilThu, 09 Apr 2026 17:02:22 GMTNetanyahu has only authorized "direct talks" with Lebanon "as soon as possible," which the market is interpreting as a stalling tactic while the IDF continues its blitz

  • 65% probability of a total ceasefire collapse before Monday remains my dominant assumption

  • As the "peace" narrative fails, IV is beginning to expand again

This is the "reload" window for shorts — buying puts while they are temporarily cheaper before the weekend "failure" is fully priced-in

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]]><![CDATA[Pre-Market — 9 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/pre-market-9-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/pre-market-9-aprilThu, 09 Apr 2026 11:22:03 GMTThe market is in a "gamma squeeze" environment where dealers are forced to buy more as price rises

  • However, the high put-call ratios (PCR) suggest that as soon as the upward momentum stalls, the "unwinding" could be rapid

  • Watch the $600 level on QQQ — it’s the linchpin for the entire market's direction

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]]><![CDATA[Post-Close — 8 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/post-close-8-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/post-close-8-aprilThu, 09 Apr 2026 01:21:20 GMTThe VIX "crushed" toward 21 this morning, but is now finding a floor as traders realize the Lebanon conflict could re-ignite the entire regional war

  • While SPY has room to touch $680, the heavy put skew & high put-call ratio across all 3 indices suggest that the market is bracing for a reversal or a mean-reversion

  • Watch for the $600 level on QQQ; a failure to hold this on a retest would confirm a move lower

All 3 indices swept prior swing lows → sharp displacement up

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]]><![CDATA[Mid-Day — 8 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/mid-day-8-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/mid-day-8-aprilWed, 08 Apr 2026 16:47:56 GMTThe market is currently reacting to a major geopolitical disconnect

  • The situation in Lebanon has shifted from a “skirmish” to a full-scale offensive that threatens to invalidate the entire ceasefire

  • The Pakistani mediators claimed the ceasefire was “regional,” but President Trump explicitly stated today that Lebanon is a “separate skirmish” & not included in the provisional truce

  • If Iran views the strikes on Hezbollah as a violation of the “Islamabad Accord,” they may re-close the Strait of Hormuz before the week is out

Across all 3, gap up → continuation

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]]><![CDATA[Pre-Market — 8 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/pre-market-8-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/pre-market-8-aprilWed, 08 Apr 2026 09:49:12 GMTThis is headline-driven risk-on, not structural — which makes it perfect fuel for a liquidity grab

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]]><![CDATA[Post-Close — 7 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/post-close-7-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/post-close-7-aprilWed, 08 Apr 2026 01:15:36 GMTThe situation between the US & Iran has shifted dramatically in the last few hours

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]]><![CDATA[Mid-Day — 7 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/mid-day-7-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/mid-day-7-aprilTue, 07 Apr 2026 16:08:27 GMT

When USD demand persists despite rising yields & equities bounce anyway,
you are in a fragile, unstable rally environment

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]]><![CDATA[Pre-Market — 7 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/pre-market-7-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/pre-market-7-aprilTue, 07 Apr 2026 09:28:25 GMTWe’re seeing an overnight continuation of the bounce, but still inside the downtrend into overhead supply/resistance

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]]><![CDATA[Post-Close — 6 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/post-close-6-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/post-close-6-aprilMon, 06 Apr 2026 23:26:34 GMTThis is still a bearish market attempting a short-term reversion to mean (20d SMA)

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]]><![CDATA[Mid-Day — 6 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/mid-day-6-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/mid-day-6-aprilMon, 06 Apr 2026 16:38:13 GMTMomentum is attempting to turn up while price is still in a down structure

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]]><![CDATA[Pre-Market — 6 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/pre-market-6-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/pre-market-6-aprilMon, 06 Apr 2026 11:17:13 GMTQQQ is in a reclaim attempt into resistance, not strength

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]]><![CDATA[Post-Close — 2 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/post-close-2-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/post-close-2-aprilFri, 03 Apr 2026 00:33:08 GMTShort-covering rally into resistance while macro deteriorates feels wrong because it is wrong — structurally

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]]><![CDATA[Mid-Day — 2 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/mid-day-2-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/mid-day-2-aprilThu, 02 Apr 2026 17:06:40 GMTThis is mean-reversion inside a bearish structure, not a new trend

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]]><![CDATA[Pre-Market — 2 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/pre-market-2-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/pre-market-2-aprilThu, 02 Apr 2026 11:12:51 GMT

Yields ↑ + Oil ↑ together is not a clean “risk-off” signal
It’s more like policy uncertainty/inflation repricing

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]]><![CDATA[Post-Close — 1 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/post-close-1-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/post-close-1-aprilWed, 01 Apr 2026 23:41:18 GMT

We’re in a bear trap or bull trap environment depending on positioning

  • Headlines implying de-escalation

  • Actual behavior = escalation (troop/asset movement)

  • Price pushing higher

  • While volume + momentum don’t confirm

The market is not reacting to “peace vs war”

  • More military assets deployed = higher tail risk

  • Even if no conflict → risk premium expands first

  • Keeps put demand elevated

  • Front-end IV sticky bid

  • The speech itself becomes a liquidity event, not information

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]]><![CDATA[Mid-Day — 1 April]]>https://pakoumal.substack.com/p/mid-day-1-aprilhttps://pakoumal.substack.com/p/mid-day-1-aprilWed, 01 Apr 2026 16:27:39 GMTMarket is likely building a lower high & options are not confirming the bounce — they’re actually leaning the other way looking at the 17 April expiration

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